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Argument An expert’s point of view on a current event. The U.S. Can’t Afford to Be a Bad Neighbor Trump’s policies threaten to alienate U.S. partners in the Americas—and Washington stands to suffer. Howard French Howard W. French By Howard W. French , a columnist at Foreign Policy . A demonstrator in a yellow-green vest holds up a banner with Trump’s face on it. A protester holds a banner with the image of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump at the San Ysidro port in Tijuana, Mexico, on Dec. 18, 2024. Guillermo Arias/AFP via Getty Images My FP: Follow topics and authors to get straight to what you like. Exclusively for FP subscribers. Subscribe Now | Log In United States North America South America Howard W. French January 7, 2025, 4:25 PM Comment icon View Comments ( 0 ) Among the many things that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump stands to learn upon returning to office is that his visions of outright U.S. domination in the Western Hemisphere are deeply outdated. In fact, as the United States has neglected to build strong and more equal partnerships, there are few places left in the hemisphere where Washington’s word automatically still holds sway. Among the many things that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump stands to learn upon returning to office is that his visions of outright U.S. domination in the Western Hemisphere are deeply outdated. In fact, as the United States has neglected to build strong and more equal partnerships, there are few places left in the hemisphere where Washington’s word automatically still holds sway. Trending Articles Has Technology Really Revolutionized Modern Warfare? How war in the 21st century has—and hasn’t—changed. Powered By Advertisement Has Technology Really Revolutionized Modern Warfare? X From Washington’s perspective, problems loom to the north and south. Many of these are of Trump’s own making or at least risk being aggravated by the hard nationalist stances that he routinely substitutes for carefully thought-out policy. These include increasingly direct threats aimed at places as far-flung as Canada, Greenland, and Panama, warning them of stern economic measures and even hinting at military intervention if they do not buckle to his demands. Take Canada, where long-standing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has just resigned —in part, one imagines, due to the poor nature of his relationship with the incoming Trump administration. During his campaign, Trump puzzlingly insisted that he would impose big new tariffs on Canada, which he rationalized as penalties for its alleged failure to stem the flow of illegal immigrants and deadly narcotics to the United States—despite the lack of evidence that Canada is a major source of either. Trump has never presented a coherent case for his enthusiasm for tariffs, a word he has said is his “ favorite .” There is wide agreement among economists that consumers bear the costs of tariffs, which raise prices for many goods. There is also little prospect that Washington can collect enough money from tariffs to offset the cost of an expected extension of or increase in previous Trump-conceived tax cuts, which the incoming administration hopes to pass in its early days. The lesson awaiting Trump is that Canadian prosperity is U.S. prosperity. Trump recently taunted Trudeau as little more than a U.S. governor and suggested that Canada should become the country’s 51st state, but the reality is that the two nations’ economies are among the most highly integrated in the world, and this has long been a source of enormous wealth and success for them both. To understand why, one must look beyond mere trade data and consider economic geography. The Great Lakes megalopolis—a binational region extending from western New York and Pennsylvania in the east to southern Ontario in the west—is the Western Hemisphere’s most populous megaregion and one of the world’s leading sources of wealth generation. Goods cycle back and forth across the Canada-U.S. border at a dizzying pace, often making multiple trips as value is added in the form of special parts or skilled labor during the industrial production process. In the U.S. imagination, Canada may seem like a dependent of the United States, a tick on the back of a dog. But in the Great Lakes region, the facts speak differently. Eleven of its 20 largest cities are Canadian. We’re talking about places that most Americans know—Toronto, Montreal, and Ottawa—but also large yet relatively obscure cities that hug the border, such as Hamilton and Vaughan in Ontario and Laval in Quebec. The same logic applies to the United States’ southern neighbor, Mexico. Its economy is also highly integrated with Washington’s, and Mexico recently surpassed Canada as the top U.S. trading partner. Trump rode to the presidency in 2016 on the promise of clamping down on immigration across the U.S.-Mexico border, and he stressed this issue once again while seeking reelection. It is difficult to imagine him changing tack, as it is simply too easy to play to U.S. nativism and historic racial preferences in immigration. Yet a much smarter economic strategy than threatening Mexico would be to see its prosperity, like Canada’s, as a pillar of U.S. strength. Just consider this through the lens of bipartisan obsession with U.S.-China competition: With its many borders, China lacks even a single neighbor with whom close integration boosts its economic and political heft. Read More An illustrations shows the silhouette of Donald Trump with a face filled with pricetags. Trump Is Ushering In a More Transactional World Countries and companies with clout might thrive. The rest, not so much. Essay | Ravi Agrawal A woman sits at a massive industrial textile machine, wearing a face mask, gloves, and an apron. She is surrounded by a floor of dozens of other similar machines. Tariffs Are a Scalpel, Not a Hammer Trump can make his favorite trade tool work—if he picks the right targets. Argument | Aaron L. Friedberg It is true that the United States needs to reform and reimagine its immigration laws and enforcement policies. But the only sensible way to do this while not inflicting harm on itself is to begin publicly admitting the inescapable fact that the country needs immigrants. Amid falling fertility rates and labor shortages, the United States requires new workers who not only do many kinds of work that Americans shun, but also contribute to innovation and highly skilled work—all while paying taxes and helping fund the U.S. social security system. Recent days, however, have offered portents of another kind of hemispheric system, one in which countries that feel pushed around by Trump may actively reject closer relations with the United States. Last week, Honduran President Xiomara Castro threatened to close a U.S. air base that has operated in the country since the 1980s if Trump carries out a mass expulsion of Hondurans. Other Central American countries could coordinate their responses in ways that complicate what already promises to be an enormously costly and complex mass deportation program. Sign up for Editors’ Picks A curated selection of FP’s must-read stories. Sign Up By submitting your email, you agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use and to receive email correspondence from us. You may opt out at any time. Enter your email Sign Up ✓ Signed Up You’re on the list! More ways to stay updated on global news: FP Live Enter your email Sign Up ✓ Signed Up World Brief Enter your email Sign Up ✓ Signed Up China Brief Enter your email Sign Up ✓ Signed Up South Asia Brief Enter your email Sign Up ✓ Signed Up Situation Report Enter your email Sign Up ✓ Signed Up View All Newsletters Further afield, in South America, countries that may have felt neglected by the U.S. focus on other regions—such as Ukraine, the Middle East, and East Asia—have pulled closer to China economically. In the past two decades, Beijing has become South America’s largest trading partner , and it continues to seek new business and investment opportunities on the continent. Last November, Chinese President Xi Jinping inaugurated a new $1.3 billion Chinese-funded port in Peru, where he was attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. Xi’s visit, which took place shortly after the U.S. election, seemed to come with an unmistakable message: While your northern neighbor is imposing and unpredictable, we are and will remain eager to do business. Many expect that Trump will eventually back off from his stated desire to tax other countries across the board. Indeed, even before he takes office, there have been hints that the president-elect will take a more selective approach and only target certain sectors, perhaps favoring businesses led by political supporters. As welcome as many countries may find this news, it will not be enough to shore up the U.S. economy and its position in the world. For that, there will be no substitute for doing what Washington has put off for too long: reengaging and building deeper partnerships with its neighbors. This post is part of FP’s ongoing coverage of the Trump transition . Follow along here . Howard W. French is a columnist at Foreign Policy, a professor at the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism, and a longtime foreign correspondent. His latest book is Born in Blackness: Africa, Africans and the Making of the Modern World, 1471 to the Second World War. X: @hofrench Read More On Canada | Central America | Donald Trump | Mexico | Migration and Immigration | North America | South America | Trade Policy & Agreements | United States Join the Conversation Commenting on this and other recent articles is just one benefit of a Foreign Policy subscription. Already a subscriber? Log In . Subscribe Subscribe View 0 Comments Join the Conversation Join the conversation on this and other recent Foreign Policy articles when you subscribe now. Subscribe Subscribe Not your account? Log out View 0 Comments Join the Conversation Please follow our comment guidelines , stay on topic, and be civil, courteous, and respectful of others’ beliefs. You are commenting as . 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