Migration Flows Shift South as Trump Hardens Border

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Latin America Brief A one-stop weekly digest of politics, economics, technology, and culture in Latin America. Delivered Friday. Sign Up By submitting your email, you agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use and to receive email correspondence from us. You may opt out at any time. Enter your email Sign Up ✓ Signed Up Migration Flows Shift South as Trump Hardens Border Asylum applications in Mexico are up, and northbound crossings in Panama are down. Osborn-Catherine-foreign-policy-columnist15 Catherine Osborn By Catherine Osborn , the writer of Foreign Policy ’s weekly Latin America Brief. Migrants wait outside facilities run by Mexico’s Commission for Refugee Assistance in Naucalpan, Mexico, on Jan. 28. Migrants wait outside facilities run by Mexico’s Commission for Refugee Assistance in Naucalpan, Mexico, on Jan. 28. Alfredo Estrella/AFP via Getty Images My FP: Follow topics and authors to get straight to what you like. Exclusively for FP subscribers. Subscribe Now | Log In U.S. Foreign Policy Human Rights North America South America Catherine Osborn March 14, 2025, 8:00 AM Comment icon View Comments ( 0 ) Welcome back to Foreign Policy ’s Latin America Brief. The highlights this week: Some migration flows shift south as the U.S.-Mexico border hardens, Cuba finalizes a Vatican-mediated prisoner release , and a trial on the circumstances of soccer legend Diego Maradona’s death gets underway in Argentina. Welcome back to Foreign Policy ’s Latin America Brief. The highlights this week: Some migration flows shift south as the U.S.-Mexico border hardens, Cuba finalizes a Vatican-mediated prisoner release , and a trial on the circumstances of soccer legend Diego Maradona’s death gets underway in Argentina. Migration Patterns and U.S. Politics Around 50 days have passed since U.S. President Donald Trump made it nearly impossible to apply for asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border. In addition to restricting eligibility rules, Trump discontinued a mobile app that allowed some migrants waiting in Mexico to book asylum appointments with U.S. authorities. Amid those and other U.S. immigration policy changes , a shift seems to be underway in migration patterns farther south. Migration flows appear to have at least partially reversed at the jungle border between Colombia and Panama, known as the Darién Gap. The region made headlines in recent years as record numbers of northbound undocumented migrants passed through it. But in February, Panamanian authorities registered figures that showed a significant shift. Last month, only 408 migrants moved north through the Darién Gap, according to Panama’s government. For much of 2024, northbound crossings through the region numbered more than 25,000 per month. But Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino said on Feb. 27 that around 2,200 migrants had entered Panama heading south so far this year. In Mexico, meanwhile, the International Organization for Migration received 2,862 requests in January and February to help migrants move back to their home countries, Reuters reported. That’s more than three times the requests made during the same period last year. Even more migrants are attempting to apply for asylum in Mexico—some 500 to 600 per day, three times higher than during the same period last year, the U.N. refugee agency’s Giovanni Lepri said. The elevated demand for asylum protection in Mexico is quickly straining authorities’ processing capacity. In Mexico City, the wait time at the end of 2024 for an asylum appointment was roughly one to two weeks; that grew to around two months in February, according to a source familiar with the data who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue. Mexico’s refugee agency, which handles intake for asylum applicants, did not respond to Foreign Policy ’s request for comment. It’s too early to tell whether the elevated number of asylum applications in Mexico will become the new normal, said Gretchen Kuhner, who works for the Institute for Women in Migration, a Mexican nonprofit. Mexico granted refugee status or complementary protection to 26,855 people last year. In addition to offering legal status, the government works with the U.N. refugee agency and private companies to connect refugees with jobs. Several Mexican companies participate in refugee job recruitment programs due to their labor needs . Even so, the Mexican asylum system has significant pitfalls. Mexico’s refugee agency has a small budget and a growing backlog . Much of its funding comes from the U.N. refugee agency, where the Trump administration recently slashed funding. Since at least early last year, under pressure from U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration to halt northward migration, Mexico has also failed to provide asylum-seekers consistent access to temporary residency cards , which ease their access to jobs and other benefits. Some Mexican officials “view asylum as a pull factor” for migration, Kuhner said. Sign up for Editors’ Picks A curated selection of FP’s must-read stories. Sign Up By submitting your email, you agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use and to receive email correspondence from us. You may opt out at any time. Enter your email Sign Up ✓ Signed Up You’re on the list! More ways to stay updated on global news: FP Live Enter your email Sign Up ✓ Signed Up World Brief Enter your email Sign Up ✓ Signed Up China Brief Enter your email Sign Up ✓ Signed Up South Asia Brief Enter your email Sign Up ✓ Signed Up Situation Report Enter your email Sign Up ✓ Signed Up View All Newsletters Kuhner said that now would be “the perfect time” to give up that stance and fully resume granting residency cards. She asked: Considering Trump’s crackdown on asylum and Mexico’s own workforce needs, “why don’t you regularize all of these people?” At the end of former Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s tenure last year, Mexico’s foreign minister tried to position the country as a regional leader on migration policy. She often said that Mexico was embracing its role not only as a place that migrants pass through, but also as a migrant destination. Yet López Obrador’s successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, has rarely used that language, according to National Autonomous University of Mexico sociologist Isabel Gil Everaert. When speaking about migration policy, Sheinbaum focuses instead on “Mexicans who are being deported, or Mexicans who are sending remittances” from the United States, Gil said. Still, it’s early in both the Sheinbaum and Trump administrations. Problems with refugee processing may not be getting the attention that they deserve because of competing emergencies, such as trade tensions between the neighbors, Gil said. Upcoming Events Sunday, March 16: Colombian President Gustavo Petro speaks before a new session of Congress. Tuesday, March 18: The U.N. Human Rights Council discusses Venezuela. Monday, March 24, to Saturday, March 29: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva visits Japan and Vietnam. What We’re Following People walk through flooded waters carrying dogs the day after a heavy storm in Bahía Blanca, Argentina, on March 8. People walk through flooded waters carrying dogs the day after a heavy storm in Bahía Blanca, Argentina, on March 8. Pablo Presti/AFP via Getty Images Flooding in Argentina. The Argentine city of Bahía Blanca was submerged last Friday in the latest extreme weather event to hit Latin America. The city received a year’s worth of rain in just several hours. Sixteen people were reported dead, and many neighborhoods were left flooded. Although President Javier Milei has threatened to pull Argentina out of the Paris climate agreement, a senior regional Argentine environmental official acknowledged that the event was “a clear example of climate change.” The disaster was reminiscent of the severe flooding that hit the Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul last April, killing more than 180 people. Like that flood zone, Bahía Blanca lies in a coastal region where a river meets the ocean. It had been experiencing a heat wave and high humidity, which primed the sky for heavy rain. Cuban prisoner release. The Cuban government said on Monday that it had concluded a round of prisoner releases that were thrown into question after Trump’s inauguration. One of Joe Biden’s final acts as U.S. president in January was to remove Cuba from a list of state sponsors of terrorism, a designation that hampered U.S. economic relations with the island. In tandem, Cuba’s government announced that it would free 533 prisoners in a move brokered by the Vatican. Rights groups said that many were understood to be Cuban political prisoners. But on Trump’s first day in office, he reversed Biden’s move. Fewer than 200 prisoners had been freed by that time, and progress on releasing the rest appeared to stall. Then, on March 10, Cuban state television reported that 533 former detainees had been released, citing the country’s top court. Relitigating Maradona. More than four years after Argentine soccer legend Diego Maradona died at the age of 60, the circumstances of his death are being examined in a trial that began this week in Buenos Aires. Maradona passed away in November 2020 while at home and recovering from brain surgery. He was under the supervision of a medical team, seven of whom a public prosecutor has accused of homicide by negligence. The trial is expected to last months and hear dozens of witnesses; in addition, one of Maradona’s nurses will face a jury trial later this year on the same charges. Unlike in the United States, photos and videos are allowed in Argentine courtrooms, and details from the first day splashed across the media. They included a photo of Maradona near the time of his death and a speech from the prosecutor, who called the soccer star’s home care a “theater of horrors” and argued that his death from a cardiac event could have been prevented. Doctors and nurses failed to provide standard inspections and reports, the prosecution alleges; the defendants deny wrongdoing. In polarized Argentina, love of Maradona crosses ideological divides—and the trial is expected to dominate headlines this year. Had Maradona lived two more years, he would have seen his national team win another World Cup. Question of the Week Maradona captained Argentina’s 1986 World Cup victory against West Germany. What country hosted the tournament? England Spain Italy Mexico Maradona scored two famous goals in Argentina’s semifinal match against England. FP’s Most Read This Week What I Got Wrong About Trump’s Second Term by Stephen M. Walt Russia Is Only Winning Inside Trump’s Head by Alexey Kovalev Why Isn’t China Playing Trump’s Game? by Lili Pike In Focus: Brazil’s Take on U.S. Tariffs Cranes operate at an iron ore mine in Congonhas, Brazil, on Feb. 11. Cranes operate at an iron ore mine in Congonhas, Brazil, on Feb. 11. Douglas Magno/AFP via Getty Images Brazil was directly hit by Trump’s tariffs for the first time this week, when the United States imposed 25 percent levies on all steel and aluminum imports. Around 60 percent of Brazil’s steel exports went to the United States last year, totaling some $4 billion of goods, according to the Brazil Steel Institute. Brazil was already indirectly affected by Trump’s other tariffs: Brazilian officials and producers have been gearing up to sell more agriculture products to China as trade tensions between Washington and Beijing increase. On Monday, China targeted the United States with 10 percent to 15 percent tariffs on U.S. agriculture exports. During the U.S.-China trade war of Trump’s first term, Brazil’s agriculture sales to China expanded. Brazil overtook the United States in agricultural exports to China, and it has remained on top since. Anticipating more of those dynamics with Trump’s return to the White House, Brazilian and Chinese officials in recent months negotiated new permissions for certain Brazilian agriculture products to enter China, such as sorghum and sesame . Knowing that Brazil can shift some of its U.S.-bound exports to other markets may help Brazilian officials maintain a somewhat coolheaded response to Trump’s tariffs. Following this week’s U.S. levies on steel and aluminum, Brazil did not immediately retaliate. Senior officials from both countries are due to speak today, Brazil’s presidential chief of staff said . But Brazil’s ability to sell more to China does not mean that the trade upheaval comes without a cost. Food inflation is already hurting Brazilian households this year, and analysts say that it may rise if more of Brazil’s output is shipped to Asia. Correction, March 14, 2025: A previous version of this article misstated Isabel Gil Everaert’s academic affiliation. My FP: Follow topics and authors to get straight to what you like. Exclusively for FP subscribers. Subscribe Now | Log In U.S. Foreign Policy Human Rights North America South America Catherine Osborn Catherine Osborn is the writer of Foreign Policy ’s weekly Latin America Brief. She is a print and radio journalist based in Rio de Janeiro. X: @cculbertosborn Read More On Central America | Human Rights | Mexico | Migration and Immigration | North America | Panama | South America | U.S. Foreign Policy Join the Conversation Commenting on this and other recent articles is just one benefit of a Foreign Policy subscription. Already a subscriber? Log In . 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